October 2024 2024年10月

Writes and Write-Nots

写与不写

I’m usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won’t be many people who can write.
我通常不太愿意对科技做出预测，但对这个预测我相当有信心：几十年后，会写作的人会越来越少。

One of the strangest things you learn if you’re a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they’re worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren’t; writers know how many people need help writing.
如果你是一名作家，你会发现最奇怪的事情之一就是：原来有那么多人写作有困难。医生知道有多少人担心他们身上的痣；擅长设置电脑的人知道有多少人不擅长设置电脑；作家也知道有多少人需要写作方面的帮助。

The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it’s fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.
很多人写作困难的原因在于，写作本身就很难。要想写好文章，你必须思路清晰，而思路清晰并不容易。

And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.
然而，写作渗透到许多工作中，而且工作越有声望，往往需要的写作就越多。

These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they’re not even halfway decent at writing.
这两种强大的对立力量——普遍存在的写作期望和写作本身难以克服的困难——造成了巨大的压力。这就是为什么一些知名教授最终会诉诸抄袭的原因。在我看来，这些案例最令人震惊的是抄袭内容的琐碎。他们抄袭的内容通常是最平庸的模板——任何一个写作水平尚可的人都能毫不费力地写出来的东西。这意味着他们的写作水平甚至连一半都算不上。

Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn’t buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.
直到最近，这些对立力量造成的压力还没有便捷的释放途径。你可以像肯尼迪那样花钱请人代笔，也可以像马丁·路德·金那样剽窃，但如果你既不能花钱也不能剽窃文字，那就只能自己写。结果就是，几乎所有需要写作的人都必须学习如何写作。

Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.
情况已经大不相同了。人工智能彻底改变了这个世界。写作的压力几乎完全消失了。无论是在学校还是在工作中，你都可以让人工智能帮你完成写作。

The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can’t write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can’t write, there will just be good writers and people who can’t write.
结果将是世界分裂成会写作的人和不会写作的人。仍然会有人会写作，我们当中有些人也喜欢写作。但写作能力强的人和完全不会写作的人之间的中间地带将会消失。不再有优秀的作家、一般的作家和不会写作的人，而只有优秀的作家和不会写作的人。

Is that so bad? Isn’t it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren’t many blacksmiths left, and it doesn’t seem to be a problem.
这有那么糟糕吗？当科技使某些技能过时时，这些技能消失难道不是很常见的吗？现在铁匠已经不多了，但这似乎并不是什么问题。

Yes, it’s bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there’s a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can’t make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:
是的，这很糟糕。原因我之前提到过：写作是一种思考。事实上，有一种思考方式只能通过写作来实现。莱斯利·兰波特对此的阐述再好不过了：

If you’re thinking without writing, you only think you’re thinking.
如果你思考而不写作，你只是以为自己在思考。

So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.
所以，一个被划分为写作者和不写作者的世界，比听起来更危险。那将是一个被划分为思考者和不思考者的世界。我知道我想成为哪一半，我敢肯定你也知道。

This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people’s jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.
这种情况并非史无前例。在工业化时代之前，大多数人的工作使他们变得强壮。如今，如果你想变得强壮，那就去锻炼。所以，强壮的人依然存在，但只是那些选择变得强壮的人。

It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.
写作领域也会如此。聪明人依然会存在，但只有那些选择成为聪明人的人才会如此。

Thanks to Jessica Livingston, Ben Miller, and Robert Morris for reading drafts of this.
感谢 Jessica Livingston、Ben Miller 和 Robert Morris 阅读本文草稿。